The quarterback position is the most important on the field, as offenses cannot function without a competent quarterback to lead them. Because of that, the majority of attention on the football field is paid to quarterbacks. And bettors can profit off of that attention paid to quarterbacks by betting on total touchdown pass props.
What are Total Touchdown Pass Props?
The total touchdown pass prop market is one where bettors are able to wager on how many touchdown passes a quarterback will throw over the course of a football game. These come in the form of an over/under wager, where a sportsbook assigns a number of touchdown passes, and bettors can wager on whether that quarterback will throw over or under that amount of touchdowns.
For example, let’s say that a sportsbook sets the line at 2.5 touchdown passes for a quarterback heading into a game. Bettors would then wager on whether they think that quarterback would throw over 2.5 touchdowns or under 2.5 touchdowns. If the quarterback threw two or fewer touchdown passes, the under would win, while three or more touchdown passes would result in a victory for over bettors.
How to Make Touchdown Pass Prop Picks
When making a touchdown pass total wager, bettors should keep a number of things in mind. But the most important of those things is the simple math that comes with this market pertaining to how many touchdowns quarterbacks usually throw. In 2021, for example, no NFL quarterback threw more than 48 touchdown passes, which equates to an average of three touchdowns per game.
With that math in mind, bettors should remember that betting on quarterbacks to throw three or more touchdowns in a game isn’t always as easy as it sounds. Even the best quarterbacks in the sport struggle to throw three or more touchdowns in a solid portion of their games. And while it is always possible to reach those amounts in a one-game sample, it is far from a guarantee.
Bettors also must think about how a quarterback has performed against a team historically. Some quarterbacks, for example, have trouble against opponents within their own division, depending on how those rivalries have played out. It is vital to identify matchups where quarterbacks have played well or played poorly before making any decisions in this market.
Pros and Cons to Touchdown Pass Props
The main positive to betting on touchdown pass props is that there are typically chances to find value on both overs and unders each week in the NFL. Different matchups yield different expectations for quarterbacks. And bettors who can identify favorable and unfavorable matchups may be able to beat this market consistently.
On the flip side, game situations can impact the ability of quarterbacks to finish drives with touchdowns. Teams could opt to run the football near the goal line and take away the ability of a quarterback to throw a passing touchdown, for example. This is a relatively volatile market, as teams do not care how they score so long as they get into the end zone.